Stats Show Falcons Choke To Cowboys Was Even More Improbable Than 25-Point Super Bowl Collapse

The Atlanta Falcons have been working for years now to separate themselves from the narrative that has stigmatized their franchise in blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Sunday’s performance won’t help. Despite jumping to a 20-0 lead and leading by 15 in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys somehow managed to win, helped by a bonehead special teams play that led to a game-winning field goal for Dallas.

The Cowboys won despite having led for not a single second of regulation. How improbable was the 20-point collapse?

Analytics show that the Falcons have a 99.9% chance of winning Sunday’s game, a number that tops their chance of winning in the Super Bowl despite a greater lead.

Here’s the chart from the Super Bowl:

Here is the chart from Sunday’s game: